A trader (strangely) won betting on Maduro capture
A mysterious trader on Polymarket won over $400,000 by betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal from power. The account was created on 27th December 2025, just one week before U.S. forces captured Maduro. Between 27th December and 31st December, the account invested approximately $32,500 betting exclusively on two outcomes. The trader bet that the United States would intervene in Venezuela and that Maduro would be removed by 31st January 2026. On 3rd January 2026, U.S. forces launched Operation Absolute Resolve, bombing military sites across Caracas. Delta Force operators captured Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores and flew them to the United States to face criminal charges. President Donald Trump announced the capture at 5:21 AM Venezuelan time and posted a photograph of Maduro aboard a U.S. Navy ship.
When the market resolved, the trader’s shares jumped from approximately 7 cents each to nearly one dollar each. This represented a 1,242% return in less than 24 hours according to trading data. The timing has sparked serious questions about whether someone with access to classified military intelligence exploited prediction markets for profit.
The suspicious timeline raises insider trading concerns
The trader’s betting pattern shows highly specific knowledge that appears inconsistent with public information available at the time. The account wagered nothing on other political events, focusing entirely on Venezuela-related outcomes with precise timing. Military officials reportedly first discussed the Venezuela operation on 25th December, though weather conditions postponed the initial plan. Two days later on 27th December, the suspicious Polymarket account was created and immediately began placing targeted bets. The trader purchased shares at around 7 cents when implied probability sat in the low single digits. Most other Polymarket users believed Maduro’s removal was highly unlikely in the near term based on public information.
On 3rd January at 9:58 PM Eastern Time, the account placed a final bet shortly before U.S. military strikes began. Just under five hours later, explosions and low-flying aircraft were observed across Caracas as the operation commenced. Representative Ritchie Torres announced he will introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to address this issue. The proposed legislation aims to prohibit government officials and military personnel from trading on classified information via prediction markets. Currently, Polymarket allows information-based trading but does not specifically ban insider trading like competitor platform Kalshi does.
Prediction markets face scrutiny over geopolitical events
This incident highlights fundamental problems with prediction markets tied to classified military or intelligence operations worldwide. Unlike corporate insider trading where a small group knows secrets, military operations involve hundreds of personnel with security clearances. Any single person with advance knowledge could place anonymous bets using cryptocurrency wallets that are difficult to trace. Polymarket operates using cryptocurrency and does not require the same identity verification as traditional betting platforms. This makes detecting and prosecuting potential insider trading significantly more challenging than in traditional financial markets. Some analysts argue that prediction markets actually help aggregate information that might otherwise remain scattered across different sources.
Others counter that markets on classified events create perverse incentives for leaks and potentially compromise national security operations. The Wall Street Journal reported speculation that the individual may have had access to confidential information regarding the operation. U.S. authorities have not confirmed whether they are investigating the suspicious trades for potential violations of classified information rules. This case may represent a turning point for how regulators approach prediction markets on sensitive geopolitical and military events globally. The outcome could determine whether platforms continue allowing bets on classified operations or face mandatory restrictions on certain event categories.
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