What Kalshi is and how it works
Kalshi is a US exchange where people trade on the outcomes of real‑world events. Each market focuses on a clear yes‑or‑no question, such as whether inflation will rise or a law will pass. Traders buy “YES” or “NO” contracts depending on what they think will happen in reality. If the answer to the question is yes, YES contracts pay one dollar and NO contracts pay zero. If the answer is no, the opposite happens and NO contracts pay one dollar instead. Contract prices move between one and ninety‑nine cents as people buy and sell. The price can be read as the market’s implied probability for that outcome. Moreover, Kalshi is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, known as the CFTC. This makes it one of the only fully licensed prediction markets available to US traders today.
A funding round that doubles the company’s value
Investor interest in Kalshi has surged during 2025. The company has just raised one billion dollars in fresh funding at an eleven billion dollar valuation. This roughly doubles its value from about five billion dollars less than two months earlier. The latest round follows an earlier raise of over three hundred million dollars in October. Backers include major venture capital firms and hedge funds that see prediction markets as a new asset class. Trading volumes on Kalshi have grown to tens of billions of dollars a year. The company says the new cash will support more event markets, more countries and new product features.
Why prediction markets matter
Prediction markets try to turn opinions about the future into precise, tradable prices. When many people buy and sell event contracts, the market aggregates their information. Traders can use these markets to hedge risks linked to politics, economics or even extreme weather. A business worried about election results could offset some risk by holding contracts on that outcome. For beginners, Kalshi offers a simple idea. You back your view on a real event with a small amount of money. For experienced traders, event contracts provide a direct way to trade macro and political risk, without using complex derivatives. Kalshi also experiments with tokenised versions of its contracts on blockchains like Solana, to attract crypto‑native liquidity. Its rapid growth suggests prediction markets may soon sit beside stocks, bonds and options in modern portfolios.
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