Portugal orders shutdown over political betting
Portugal’s gambling regulator ordered Polymarket to cease operations within 48 hours on January 17, 2026. The order followed over €103 million in bets placed on the platform regarding the country’s presidential election held on January 18, 2026. The regulator confirmed that Polymarket lacks the necessary authorisation to provide betting services in Portugal and only became aware of the platform « very recently. » Portuguese law prohibits betting on political events or incidents, both national and international, permitting only sports betting, casino games, and horse racing.
Despite the deadline passing, the cryptocurrency prediction platform remains fully operational without any location-based restrictions for Portuguese users. The regulator is now likely to request internet service providers to block access to the Polymarket website. Trading volumes for Portugal’s presidential election markets exceeded $120 million globally on the platform before the official results were announced.
Suspicious patterns raise insider trading concerns
Over €4 million was wagered on Polymarket within a two-hour period just before the official election results were released. António José Seguro entered the election with a 60% chance on Polymarket, while his opponent André Ventura stood at 30%. By 6 PM, just one hour before polls closed, Seguro’s odds skyrocketed to 96% and ultimately reached 100% once official projections confirmed his victory. The unusual fluctuations in betting odds coincided with the release of exit polls, raising significant concerns regarding potential information leaks and insider trading.
By 6 PM, early exit poll forecasts began circulating privately, all indicating a significant victory for Seguro with over 30% of the vote. The two candidates are set to compete in a runoff on February 8, but Polymarket will not be accessible to Portuguese bettors during this event. The regulator emphasised that Polymarket’s operations are « illegal » under national law, which explicitly forbids wagering on political events domestically or internationally.
Global regulatory crackdown continues as platform faces restrictions in 30 countries
The actions taken in Portugal mirror similar enforcement measures in other nations where Polymarket faces growing regulatory scrutiny and operational restrictions. France previously probed a trader who placed millions in bets on the 2024 US presidential election through the platform. Polymarket now faces restrictions or bans in more than 30 countries including Singapore, Belgium, and Ukraine due to unlicensed gambling operations. The $9 billion platform recently secured a partnership with Dow Jones to distribute prediction data to various outlets including The Wall Street Journal.
Polymarket has not released any public comments regarding the situation in Portugal or its compliance plans. The platform enables individuals to wager on real-world events using cryptocurrency, creating legal ambiguity in jurisdictions with strict gambling regulations. Regulatory authorities worldwide are increasingly scrutinising prediction markets that allow betting on political outcomes, viewing them as unlicensed gambling operations requiring oversight.
